$1.27 billion worth of crop still in the field

Some quick, back-of-the-envelop calculations indicate that the value of the Saskatchewan crop still in the field is in the range of $1.27 billion dollars. I’ve based this on the percentage of each crop still to be harvest as estimated in yesterday’s crop report, combined with the Statistics Canada estimate of total production for each crop, along with current price levels. The biggest value by far is canola. Thirty-four per cent of the canola is still in the field and it has a value of over $600 million. The next biggest is spring wheat. Only 24 per cent of the spring wheat is still out, but that’s a lot of acres and a lot of bushels. Assuming most of the wheat is now a No. 3 grade, the value comes to about $250 million. Flax is a much smaller acreage crop, but 70 per cent of the flax is yet to be harvested. Assuming a value of $7.50 a bushel, there’s about $150 million worth still to be harvested. Forty-one per cent of the oats is still out for a value of about $80 million. Only 13 per cent of the durum is out, but even with downgrading and the low price of durum, it is worth about $68 million. Half of the canaryseed crop is out and that has a current value of about $25 million. If the unharvested crop stays out over winter, how much bushel weight loss, quality loss and rodent damage will there be? Those estimates are very tough to make. I’m Kevin Hursh.