Acreage estimates

The first crop report of the season for the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture includes estimates of which crops are going to increase in acreage and which crops are going to decrease. This is based on information from approximately 250 volunteer crop reporters. Durum acreage in the southern and central grain belt is expected to drop by 17 or 18 per cent. With the big carryover of durum and with terrible price prospects, I wouldn’t be surprised if durum acreage dropped even more than that. The crop report is calling for lentil acreage to be up 12 to 13 per cent in southern and central areas. Again, I think the magnitude of the change is being underestimated. Saskatchewan grew 2.3 million acres of lentils last year. A 13 per cent increase would only take the acreage to 2.6 million. Most analysts have been predicting 3.0 or 3.2 million acres and I wouldn’t be surprised if lentil acreage ends up at 3.5. For canola, the crop report is calling for a 10 per cent increase in the south, a seven per cent increase in central areas and a five per cent increase in the northern grain belt. Canola has more opportunity to increase in the south – the north is pretty much maxed out on already. Flax acres are expected to drop 7 to 8 per cent across the province. The best indication of seeding intentions will be the Statistics Canada report on April 26. I’m Kevin Hursh.