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Using the seeding intentions from Statistics Canada and assuming average yields, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has come out with new supply and demand estimates for all the major grains, oilseeds, pulse and special crops. From that, the average price levels for the upcoming crop year have been predicted. Prices are forecast to be lower on wheat, durum, malting barley, off-board barley, field peas, lentils and mustard. On a few crops, the prediction is calling for about the same price in the upcoming crop year. This includes oats, flax, chickpeas and canaryseed. The only crops forecast to have a higher average price are corn and canola. Ag Canada notes that seeding intentions are 7 per cent lower on canola. Due to the expectation that yields will drop back to closer to normal, total Canadian production is projected to fall by 20 per cent as compared to the record 2008 canola crop. At 10.2 million tonnes, this would still be the second largest crop in history. Meanwhile, domestic crush is expected to be way up due to new crushing plants coming on line. As well, exports are forecast to remain historically large. As a result, carry-out stocks of canola are forecast to drop sharply. The Ag Canada analysis calls for prices to increase by about 5 per cent – the result of higher premiums for canola oil and tight supply. I’m Kevin Hursh
Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC