Don’t expect U.S. durum acres to drop

The seeding intentions report from Statistics Canada comes out on Monday and everyone expects durum acreage to drop dramatically. In fact, the Canadian Wheat Board is expecting a drop of close to 25 per cent. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s even greater than that. But don’t expect American farmers to follow suit. The CWB is not expecting a decline in American durum acres due to the U.S. support programs that insulate U.S. producers from the marketplace. Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the loan rates for agricultural commodities. According to the CWB, the durum rate for North Dakota is over $6 per bushel even though the current elevator price is just over $3 per bushel. By comparison, the North Dakota loan rate for spring wheat is below $4 a bushel. A lot of American farmers won’t look at the market situation. They’ll just grow what has the best government support. A producer in North Dakota, when deciding between durum and spring wheat, will likely choose durum. That certainly won’t help reduce the worldwide durum surplus. I’m Kevin Hursh.