Supply, demand and politics

Politics has had a huge impact on grain prices this fall. First, anti-hoarding measures introduced in India caused a flood of field peas onto the market. That dropped pea prices as well as Canadian exports and both are yet to recover. Then Europe reported finding an unapproved GMO flax variety in flax shipments from Canada. That situation is hopefully working its way towards a resolution, but in the meantime the European market has been closed to Canadian flax and prices have taken a hit. There were also GMO concerns in mustard, but that was trace amounts of an approved canola trait, so the disruption seems to be minimal. The latest problem comes from China. For some reason, they’ve decided to ban any canola that tests positive for blackleg. There has always been some blackleg fungus in canola and it’s never been a problem before. Officials are trying to sort through the issue, but China is saying that it won’t take accept any canola with Blackleg after November 15 That caused a sharp dip in canola prices late last week. Another ongoing problem for canola is that the United States is stopping some canola meal shipments due to presence of salmonella. Without a market for the meal, some crushing plants have reduced their crush. Rather than just supply and demand, it’s supply, demand and politics determining our prices this fall. I’m Kevin Hursh.