New supply and demand estimates for all the major crops have been generated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. On grains and oilseeds, Canadian production is forecast to fall by 19 per cent due to higher abandonment and below normal yields. Total supplies are forecast to fall 12 per cent as large carry-in stocks moderate the production decline. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 26 per cent, ending the upcoming crop year well below the 10 year average. That would sound like a prescription for higher prices, but lower average prices in the upcoming crop year are forecast for wheat, durum, and oats. Flax, canola and off-board barley are expected to see new crop prices that are very similar to this year’s. In the pulse and special crops, field pea production is forecast to be down significantly due to lower yields and lower acres, but this will be offset by record carry-in stocks. The average pea price is expected to be down a bit. On lentils, production is forecast to increase for the fourth consecutive year. The biggest increase will be on red lentils. The average lentil price is forecast to fall from the record prices this crop year, but remain historically high. Mustard seed production is expected to rise due to higher acres. The average mustard price is expected to fall slightly, but remain high by historical standards. On canaryseed, despite large carry-in stocks, the supply is expected to fall due to lower yields and lower acres. The average price is forecast to be unchanged in the crop year ahead. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
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