Would you bet on durum or peas?

Which crop will return to $7 a bushel first – durum or peas? A neighboring farmer posed that question as we shot the breeze at the local farm input dealership over the weekend. It’s an interesting way to look at the difficulties facing these two major crops. Both durum and yellow peas have shown they can go to $7 and beyond, but both are now sitting at disappointing price levels. Sales of peas to India have been slow and lots of producers are refusing to sell at prices stuck below $5. On durum, there’s little choice but to hold inventory. In the Series A contract, the |CWB accepted only 40 per cent of the durum offered. The Series B acceptance level was recently announced at just 20 per cent. Durum prices, which are ugly this crop year, are projected to go even lower in the new crop year. For many producers in the southern grain belt, durum and peas have been their two main crops. While everyone knows that Canadian durum acreage is going to drop dramatically this spring, analysts have not been predicting a big drop in pea acreage. Pea acreage may be maintained in the non-lentil growing regions, but where lentils are a viable option, there will, in my opinion, be a big shift into lentils. Going back to the original question, my guess is that peas will see $7 before durum, but I have no idea when that may be. I’m Kevin Hursh.